Integrated Country Strategy Nigeria FOR PUBLIC RELEASE FOR PUBLIC RELEASE Table of Contents 1. Chief of Mission Priorities 2 2. Mission Strategic Framework 4 3. Mission Goals and Objectives 6 4. Management Objectives 10 FOR PUBLIC RELEASE Approved: September 28, 2018 1 FOR PUBLIC RELEASE 1. Chief of Mission Priorities Nigeria is the single most important strategic partner for the United States in sub- Saharan Africa. One out of every five Africans resides in Nigeria, and its diaspora spans the globe. With an estimated 190 million people today, it is the most populous country in Africa, and at its current growth rate, Nigeria’s population will rise to more than 400 million by 2050. Some 90 million Muslims and 90 million Christians live together in Nigeria, many in the same family and under a common roof. The nation has surpassed South Africa as the biggest economy on the continent and is a vibrant hub of African film, banking, and information technology. It has talented human capital and other resources, including oil, agricultural and commerce. However, Nigeria is challenged by widespread inter-communal violence, terrorism, poverty, and corruption. Our priorities in Nigeria are to support democratic governance, economic growth, and peace building, while providing critical life-saving assistance through humanitarian operations and health interventions. These priorities reflect the serious humanitarian crisis present in northeast Nigeria and are linked directly to protection of the Homeland, promoting economic vitality for the Homeland, and preserving peace and security to ensure global stability. Strong citizens and a robust civil society strengthen institutions and their sustainability. We work with Nigerian government institutions and civil society organizations to deal with the threats they face in the Northeast, the Niger Delta, and throughout the country. We support efforts, led by a democratically elected president, to maintain Nigeria’s national unity, fight terror, diversify the economy, create jobs at a rate that outpaces population growth, and open up new opportunities for trade with the United States. With like-minded diplomatic and development Missions, we are committed to assisting the Nigerian people to conduct credible national elections in 2019 in order to build on the successful 2015 elections and further consolidate democracy in Africa’s most populous nation. Achieving these outcomes will add to the security and prosperity of the United States, Nigeria, and the whole of Africa. Mission Nigeria’s consular operations are among the ten highest-volume visa processing operations in the world and help protect more than 100,000 U.S. citizens who reside in Nigeria and tens of thousands of U.S. citizens who visit Nigeria annually. The consular sections work closely with Nigerian counterparts, the Regional Security Office, and other U.S. government agencies to protect U.S. borders and citizens. FOR PUBLIC RELEASE Approved: September 28, 2018 2 FOR PUBLIC RELEASE Nigeria’s elections in 2015, which resulted in its first-ever peaceful transfer of power to an opposition political party, were an important milestone. President Buhari’s major policy commitments on taking the reins of government were to bring peace and security to the Northeast, diversify the economy, lift the country out of a recession, and combat a culture of corruption in government and the country as a whole. Progress in the Northeast has been slow, with continued horrific attacks from Islamist terrorists. The Middle Belt states have experienced ongoing violence in rural areas, exacerbating land use conflicts between pastoralists and farmers, and Nigerian security services and peace-building organizations have not been able to bring the violence under control. The economy has come out of recession, due in part to rebounding oil prices, but it is a largely jobless recovery, except in agriculture. Business confidence has ticked up only modestly. There have been some cases of arrests, forfeitures, and prosecution of official corruption, and there is a strong sense that President Buhari himself has great integrity. However, corruption continues to be endemic. Nigeria has a free and vibrant press and a political environment that is largely committed to civilian leadership of the country. These factors continue to support increased budget transparency, greater investment of Nigeria’s own resources in development activities, and improved management capacity of state and local governments. Over the next four years, our work with Nigeria will save hundreds of thousands of lives from disease, hunger, and violence. We will also reduce the threats the United States faces from international terrorism and communicable disease; slow the exodus of irregular migrants from Nigeria; and improve the prospect that U.S. businesses will gain valuable markets, partners, and investment opportunities in Nigeria and across the continent. FOR PUBLIC RELEASE Approved: September 28, 2018 3 FOR PUBLIC RELEASE 2. Mission Strategic Framework Mission Goal 1: Support Stronger Democratic Institutions, Governance, and Respect for Human Rights Mission Objective 1.1: Strengthen Good Governance (CDCS DO 3) Mission Objective 1.2: Strengthen Democratic Institutions, including Rule of Law, Respect for Human Rights, Decreased Corruption, and Transparency and Accountability in Government Mission Objective 1.3: Reduce Endemic Corruption at All Levels of Government Mission Goal 2: Increase Mutually Beneficial Trade and Investment, and Strengthen Human Capital for Inclusive Nigerian Economic Growth and Human Development Mission Objective 2.1: Broadened and Inclusive Growth (CDCS DO 1) Mission Objective 2.2: Support a healthier, more educated population in targeted states (CDCS DO 2) Mission Goal 3: Protect Against Security Threats to U.S. Borders and Interests, and Further Nigerian Unity, Peace, and Stability Mission Objective 3.1: Partner with Nigeria to contain and degrade Boko Haram and ISIS- WA and to set the conditions for the safe, voluntary return of displaced persons to their communities. Mission Objective 3.2: Improve Protection of U.S. Borders and U.S. Citizens Mission Objective 3.3: Encourage Peaceful Dialogue and Facilitate Conflict Prevention and Mediation across Nigeria Management Objective 1: Enhance the safety and security, attract qualified bidders, and increase the morale of Mission Nigeria by improving quality of life and residential and official facilities FOR PUBLIC RELEASE Approved: September 28, 2018 4 FOR PUBLIC RELEASE Management Objective 2: Support the growing Mission by strengthening the management platform and evaluating the need for additional ICASS personnel to provide excellent customer service FOR PUBLIC RELEASE Approved: September 28, 2018 5 FOR PUBLIC RELEASE 3. Mission Goals and Objectives Mission Goal 1: Support Stronger Democratic Institutions, Governance, and Respect for Human Rights Description and Linkages: Nigeria plays a leading role in promoting democracy and stability across Africa. Support for Nigeria’s nascent democratic institutions and for human rights directly links to Joint Strategic Plan (JSP) 2018-2022 goals for protecting U.S. security and renewing U.S. competitive advantage. Mission Goal 1 is also consonant with the AF/AFR draft strategic goal for strengthening democracy, human rights, and good governance. Strong, accountable, and democratic institutions, sustained by a deep commitment to the rule of law, generate greater prosperity and stability, and meet with greater success in mitigating conflict and ensuring security. While Nigeria has made important gains in democracy and institution building, those gains are fragile. Endemic corruption weakens state institutions. Mission Objective 1.1: Strengthened Good Governance Justification: Poor governance severely constrains the provision of basic social services including health care, education, water supply and sanitation, and economic infrastructure. Citizens lack the capacity to hold their governments accountable. Despite the current administration’s stated commitment to uncover and prosecute corruption, public perception of the problem has not changed The USG plans to help the Government of Nigeria strengthen its law enforcement capacity, improve administrative and financial management at state and local levels, and administer elections. Concurrently, we will help civil society better advocate for improved government services and hold government officials accountable for the transparent management of public resources. The national elections in 2019 are Nigeria’s chance to build upon its nascent democracy. The 2015 elections were largely peaceful and credible; however, there is still a danger that the upcoming elections could be marred by violence, intimidation, and fraud. Mission Objective 1.2: Strengthen Democratic Institutions, including Rule of Law, Respect for Human Rights, Decreased Corruption, and Transparency and Accountability in Government Justification: An empowered, independent, and effective judiciary is critical for Nigeria to address the backlog of cases it faces and expand its ability to support the rule of law. FOR PUBLIC RELEASE Approved: September 28, 2018 6 FOR PUBLIC RELEASE The failure of Nigerian law enforcement and the judiciary to investigate and prosecute a range of crimes, from corruption-related offenses to human rights abuses, leaves Nigeria mired in a cycle of corruption and underdevelopment that it cannot address without reform. Mission Objective 1.3: Reduce Endemic Corruption at All Levels of Government Justification: In Nigeria, corruption saps economic growth, hinders development, destabilizes governments, undermines democracy, and provides openings for dangerous groups like criminals, traffickers, and terrorists. The activities under this objective make it harder for criminals and terrorists to take root and spread, promotes the Nigerian government to be more stable and accountable, and levels the playing field for U.S. businesses to compete more effectively in Nigeria. Mission Goal 2: Increase Mutually Beneficial Trade and Investment, and Strengthen Human Capital for Inclusive Nigerian Economic Growth and Human Development Description and Linkages: This goal links to the Joint Strategic Plan’s (JSP) 2018-2022. goal to renew America’s competitive advantage for sustained economic growth and job creation, and to the AF/AFR strategic goal for increasing mutually beneficial economic growth, trade, and investment. For the decade ending in 2014, Nigeria enjoyed strong economic growth averaging 7% a year; however, the absolute number of those living in poverty continued to increase. Due to a fall in oil prices, Nigeria’s economy officially entered into recession in 2016. Although the oil price recovery in 2018 has brought the economy out of recession, it is a largely jobless recovery. Implementing reforms to promote infrastructure and diversify exports is necessary for developing non-oil sector exports and creating jobs. Mission Objective 2.1: Broadened and Inclusive Growth Justification: Broad based and inclusive economic growth will reduce poverty and hunger, create jobs, provide resources for expansion of health and educational services, and create new opportunities for U.S. businesses positively to contribute to and benefit from Nigerian economic growth. Economic growth is hampered by one of the lowest per capita rates of power availability in the world: about 50% of the population has access to power. Sanitation covers only 30% of the population in northern areas of the country. Sustainable poverty reduction and economic growth in Nigeria will only be FOR PUBLIC RELEASE Approved: September 28, 2018 7 FOR PUBLIC RELEASE achieved through private sector-led growth, thus efforts must focus support on improved agricultural productivity, job creation in the rural areas, market-based solutions, and privatization of the energy sector for improved efficiency. Bottlenecks to inclusive growth, such as poor access to inputs and markets, coupled with an unfriendly business environment have prevented most Nigerians from benefitting from the country’s robust economic growth. Although Nigeria’s agricultural sector employs nearly 70 percent of the population and contributes close to 22 percent of GDP, the sector is underperforming. The country continues to struggle in developing its agriculture value chain after years of neglect, largely attributed to over-reliance on petroleum for government revenue and foreign exchange earnings. If agricultural competitiveness and access to available electricity are increased more broadly across Nigeria, and simultaneously the business environment is reformed, then the sources of growth will expand more evenly across the country, there will be greater private sector investment, and the share of the labor force included in this growth process will likely increase. Mission Objective 2.2: Support a healthier, more educated population in targeted states Justification: Productivity in Nigeria is greatly reduced by the high burden of preventable and/or treatable diseases (e.g., measles, polio, malaria, HIV, etc.). Improved public health increases economic activity and opportunity for U.S. businesses. In addition, a healthier population in Nigeria reduces the risk of disease epidemics that can spread regionally or globally from Nigeria, thereby causing economic and social disruption. Mission Goal 3: Protect Against Security Threats to U.S. Borders and Interests, and Further Nigerian Unity, Peace, and Stability Description and Linkages: This goal links to Joint Strategic Plan (JSP) 2018-2022 goals for protecting America’s security at home and abroad, including defeating transnational terrorist organizations, countering instability and crime that threaten U.S. interests, increasing partners’ resilience to deter aggression and malign influence by non-state actors, and strengthening border security and protecting U.S. citizens abroad. This Mission goal also links to AF/AFR Joint Regional Strategy (JRS) goals for advancing mutual peace and security interests. Working with Nigerian leaders, civil society organizations, and the international community, we will prevent, mitigate, and resolve violent conflict and deal with the humanitarian consequences thereof. We will support reforms and accountability mechanisms to address human rights abuses by Nigeria’s security sector. FOR PUBLIC RELEASE Approved: September 28, 2018 8 FOR PUBLIC RELEASE Mission Objective 3.1: Partner with Nigeria to contain and degrade Boko Haram and ISIS-WA and to set the conditions for the safe, voluntary return of displaced persons to their communities. Justification: Despite years of battling violent extremists in the Northeast, Nigeria’s security forces remain ill-prepared to address the host of military and social crises caused by Boko Haram and ISIS-WA. Lack of communication sharing across agencies, poor governmental control of the security services, corruption, lack of resources, and a failure to respect basic human rights when carrying out operations plague attempts to address security concerns. The major challenge is to combine capacity-building in the security forces with institutional reforms that help the forces perform their duties while meeting international standards and protecting human rights. The U.S. has transferred very little defense equipment to Nigeria because of corruption in the defense procurement sector, inability of security forces to retain positive control of defense equipment, and a poor human rights record. However, Nigeria is in the process of executing its first ever major purchase of U.S. equipment via FMS for up to 12 A-29 aircraft along with associated training, munitions, spare parts, main operating base construction, and support for the Nigerian Air Force. Mission Objective 3.2: Improve Protection of U.S. Borders and U.S. Citizens Justification: The GON’s deficiency in sharing time-sensitive information can adversely affect the ability to quickly identify information on potential terrorists or criminals and be detrimental to the protection of U.S. citizens and our border. The GON’s inability to issue travel documents delays the removal of Nigerians under final deportation orders. Mission Objective 3.3: Encourage Peaceful Dialogue and Facilitate Conflict Prevention and Mediation across Nigeria Justification: There are ongoing conflicts in the Northeast (Boko Haram and ISIS-WA), the Middle Belt (herder-farmer), the Southeast (IPOB, MASSOB), and the South-South (Niger Delta Avengers et al.). There is no one-size-fits-all approach to encouraging dialogue and conflict prevention and mediation across the entire country, but targeted interventions can support and complement Government of Nigeria, CSO, and faith- based efforts. FOR PUBLIC RELEASE Approved: September 28, 2018 9 FOR PUBLIC RELEASE 4. Management Objectives Management Objective 1: Enhance the safety and security, attract qualified bidders, and increase the morale of Mission Nigeria by improving quality of life and residential and official facilities Justification: Nigeria is the single most important strategic partner for the United States in Africa and the management platform provides direct support to seven U.S. agencies that are Mission Nigeria. The Consulate General in Lagos and the Embassy in Abuja have 257 direct U.S. hires and approximately 915 LES. Recruiting qualified bidders and providing quality of life and acceptable housing is an ongoing challenge and Nigeria’s insecurity limits many traditional options for Post. We are committed to steadily improve Post’s housing pool, boosting quality of life, and increasing morale, while meeting required security regulations to better serve our assigned personnel. These efforts will significantly improve the quality of life and help recruit qualified officers to Mission Nigeria. Management Objective 2: Support the growing Mission by strengthening the management platform and evaluating the need for additional ICASS personnel to provide excellent customer service Justification: We work with Nigerian institutions to deal with the threats they face in the Northeast, the Niger Delta, and throughout the country. The Mission’s efforts save lives, create economic opportunities, and add to the security and prosperity of the United States. Achieving these outcomes requires a robust management platform that has the flexibility to support the wide ranging goals of the Mission. A properly resourced management team will ensure the safety and security of Mission personnel and help achieve U.S. goals. FOR PUBLIC RELEASE Approved: September 28, 2018 10